RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Is India slipping back into bad habits?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Economic Report

Very dangerous cars

Trump received the report on the investigation into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. The conclusions have not been made public. Trump now has 90 days to decide – depending on the conclusion of the report – whether or not to impose tariff.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report

China: economische groei koelt steeds verder af (Dutch)

Zoals verwacht zet de groeivertraging in China door. Als gevolg van zorgen over de afkoelende binnenlandse economie zijn beleidmakers weer begonnen met stimuleren. Vooralsnog is de directe impact van de handelsoorlog niet zichtbaar in Chinese handelscijfers, maar escalatie daarvan hangt als een zwaard van Damocles boven de economie.

Economic Report

Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?

We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.

Economic Report

Weathering the Indian rupee storm

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.

Economic Report

The downsides of India’s oil addiction

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.

Economic Report

China: de groeivertraging die je wist dat zou komen? (Dutch)

Wij verwachten dat de Chinese bbp-groei afneemt in het tweede kwartaal. Dit past in het beeld van een geleidelijke groeivertraging als gevolg van een afkoelende binnenlandse economie. Deze vertraging kan echter harder uitvallen als het handelsconflict tussen China en de VS verder escaleert.