RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Peru: positive economic outlook

Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.

Country Report

Saudi Arabia: reforms are necessary to reduce economic reliance on oil

Lower oil prices put increased pressure on the Saudi economy. Growth is slowing down and the fiscal situation is under pressure. Implementation of the diversification plan (vision 2030) would be a positive factor, but will be difficult to achieve.

Country Report

Hungary: Stable growth, but government policies remain unorthodox

Economic growth in 2015 has been robust thanks to the usage of EU-funds and strong external demand. The fiscal situation improved, although with controversial measures. In general, the government maintained its populist and nationalist policies.

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.

Country Report

South Korea: still going strong

Government stimulus helps South Korea’s economy hold ground against domestic and external headwinds. Tensions with North Korea picked up, but are unlikely to have severe consequences.

Country Report

Indonesia: Widodo is turning the tide

Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.

Country Report

Malaysia: corruption scandal is haunting the prime minister

Growth in Malaysia slowed down as a result of lower commodity prices. The involvement of PM Najib in a large corruption scandal is hurting his position and international investors’ confidence. This has resulted in increased external pressure on the economy and the balance of payments.

Country Report

China: turbulence on financial markets accompanied by fall of FX reserves

Turbulence on financial markets has been accompanied by a strong fall of China’s still sizable stock of FX reserves. Growth in industry and construction took a hit in 2015, but service sector growth appears to have remained stable. China’s economic challenges are big.