RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Recession United States on the radar

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

Economic Report

United States: Return of the US debt ceiling

After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.

Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.

Economic Report

Very dangerous cars

Trump received the report on the investigation into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. The conclusions have not been made public. Trump now has 90 days to decide – depending on the conclusion of the report – whether or not to impose tariff.

Economic Report

De onvermoede voortgang van Trump (Dutch)

Ruim één jaar na de inauguratie van Donald Trump zijn de eerste successen geboekt: een ingrijpende belastingwet is getekend en de regeldruk voor het bedrijfsleven is verminderd. Handelsmaatregelen bleven achter bij de campagneretoriek, maar kunnen in 2018 alsnog van de grond komen.

Economic Report

Trumponomics: kansen en bedreigingen voor Nederlandse bedrijven (Dutch)

Met de inauguratie van Donald Trump op 20 januari 2017 rijst de vraag welke kansen en bedreigingen zijn beleid met zich meebrengt voor Nederlandse bedrijven. Een belemmering van de vrijhandel kan namelijk flinke gevolgen hebben voor onze economie.