RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

Economic Comment

De Duitse diesel slaat niet zo snel af (Dutch)

De Duitse economie is in het vierde kwartaal weer duidelijk aangetrokken, hoewel het onderliggende groeitempo is vertraagd. De komende jaren zal zij naar verwachting groeien met jaarlijks 1,5-2,0 procent.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: To vote or not to vote?

Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.

Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: The finals

The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.

Economic Comment

Brexit update: entering overtime

The UK brought the Brexit talks with the EU to a stand-still on 14 October. EU’s original deadline for a signed deal has been missed. We now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as those of a deal.

Economic Comment

De-dramatising Salzburg

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.