RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.

Special

India: getting inside the head of the RBI

We have developed a two-equation model to forecast India’s interest rate and inflation. Going forward, we expect that both variables will follow an upward trajectory. In our lower bound forecasts, we are even more hawkish than the repo forecasts from a Bloomberg survey among 46 economists.

Special

Argentina: open for business

A new government has embarked on a major and much-needed shift in economic policies. The economic recovery is in sight and business opportunities arise in sectors with high catch up potential.