RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Italian elections: three scenario’s

The Italian elections on March 4 will likely yield a hung parliament. The reform outlook is weak and some fiscal slippage is likely. We believe the risk of an unexperienced nationalist government is limited, but the market might well be underpricing risks.

Special

US: Is there rising wage growth on the horizon?

We predict wage growth to peak at 3.0 to 3.3% in the next two years. While this is higher than current levels, it’s on the low end of the Fed’s preferred range. At the same time, our models show that we’re already getting close to the peak of the economic cycle.

Special

The economic impact of a (partial) NAFTA breakdown

The total economic costs of a NAFTA breakdown up till 2025 would range between 0.9% and 1.0% GDP for the US, 1.3% and 2.0% GDP for Canada, and 2.2% and 2.6% GDP for Mexico, depending on the severity of the breakdown.

Special

India: getting inside the head of the RBI

We have developed a two-equation model to forecast India’s interest rate and inflation. Going forward, we expect that both variables will follow an upward trajectory. In our lower bound forecasts, we are even more hawkish than the repo forecasts from a Bloomberg survey among 46 economists.

Special

Op weg naar een girale wereld? (Dutch)

Wereldwijd proberen beleidsmakers chartaal geld te ontmoedigen, om criminaliteit terug te dringen en ruimte te maken voor het monetaire beleid. Maar voorlopig is het gebruik van chartaal geld nog hardnekkig.

Special Dutch version

The permanent damage of Brexit

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.

Special

Assessing the economic impact of Brexit: background report

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.