RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

French Reforms: A bumpy road lies ahead

Macron’s ambitious reform plans were blocked by the yellow vests protests last year. In an attempt to reaffirm his authority he has launched the “Grand National Debate”. Afterwards Macron will announce his new plans.

Special

Should the ECB consider issuing its own securities?

The ECB could use Central Bank Securities to mop up liquidity. The use of this instrument may bring the additional advantage of the creation of a EMU-wide ‘safe asset’. This may bring advantages for the stability of the Eurozone.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.