RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The return of IFI lending

The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary struggled through the financial and economic crisis in 2009. The economy shrunk by 7% and there was little room for fiscal stimulus as Hungary had to adhere to the conditions of the IMF attached to the aid package.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Similar to other Eastern European countries, the financial crisis hit Bulgaria mainly through a drop in export demand, tighter credit facilities and general risk aversion against the region. The economy shrunk by 5% in 2009.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

The global recession in 2009 hit Malaysia via the trade channel. The highly export dependent economy experienced a steep decline in external demand for its export products last year.

Economic Report

Chili: nature strikes

One of the strongest earthquakes to ever hit Chile occurred on 27 February 2010. The country’s infrastructure sustained massive damage and the death toll is currently estimated around 600. As a result of the earthquake, economic activity will be subdued in the short term.

Economic Report

Chili: a step to the right

Since the return to democracy in 1990, the center-left oriented coalition, the Concertación, had won every presidential election. In fact, Piñera is the first right-wing candidate to win a democratic presidential election since Jorge Allisandri Rodríguez won the presidency in 1958.

Economic Comment

Should the Greeks go on a holiday?

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economic Comment

Griekse 'boekhoudtrucs' geen nieuws (Dutch)

Griekenland is deze week weer in het nieuws; haar overheid zou boekhoudkundige trucs gebruiken om de staatsschuld er lager uit te laten zien dan deze is. Maar de nieuwswaarde voor wat betreft de analyse van de Griekse overheidsfinanciën is gering.

Column

IJslands hoop in bange dagen (Dutch)

IJsland bevindt zich in een diepe economische, financiële en politieke crisis. Nu de president het akkoord over de terugbetaling van ’s lands buitenlandse schulden heeft getorpedeerd moet worden gevreesd dat het land zich op een hellend vlak bevindt.

Economic Comment

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economic Comment

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

Ukraine’s country risk profile has improved somewhat recently, but overall risks remain high. A new government, controlled by the party of newly elected president Yanukovych, has taken power, which has ended the political paralysis and infighting of the preceding years.

Economic Comment

Voedselzekerheid in 2050: De opgave (Dutch)

Voedselzekerheid is een belangrijke randvoorwaarde voor een stabiele economische ontwikkeling en voor de sociale rust in de wereld. Een van de uitdagingen van de 21e eeuw is om voldoende voedsel te produceren voor een steeds grotere wereldbevolking.

Economic Report

Het veranderende Nederlandse bankenlandschap (Dutch)

Ruim twee jaar na het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis krabbelen banken weer op. Hoe vergaat het tegen deze achtergrond de Nederlandse top 5-banken en wat betekent de crisis voor de concurrentieverhoudingen in het bankenlandschap?

Country Report

Sri Lanka (Country report)

The end of the civil war has boosted long-term economic prospects for Sri Lanka. The economy is expected to grow over 6% in 2010. However, the humanitarian situation remains poor since the government has failed to address the grievances of the Tamil minority.