RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

United Arab Emirates (Country report)

The UAE escaped the turmoil that hit the Arab world over the past months, as the social and economic causes of the unrest hardly applied to the emirates. There is no suppressed frustration like in Saudi Arabia. Rich, powerful and conservative Abu Dhabi dominates the federation, with modern and market-minded but indebted Dubai playing second fiddle.

Country Report

Vietnam (Country report)

Vietnam’s pro-growth policies will result in economic growth of around 6% year on year (yoy) in 2011, but at the expense of macro-economic stability. External imbalances are very high, as the current account posts large deficits and the country’s liquidity position is in a dismal state.

Country Report

Singapore (Country report)

Singapore has very healthy public finances, strong net-creditor position, solid economic fundamentals, and a stable political environment. Having said that, the large size of the country’s banking sector combined with a huge dependence on global demand makes Singapore’s economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks.

Country Report

South Africa (Country report)

South Africa’s economy recovered, after a year-long recession in 2009. In 2010, the economy grew by 2.8%. Growth was largely demand driven, with an increase in both external and domestic demand fuelling growth in, among others, the manufacturing sector.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Japan is an economy running high-speed into uncharted territory. It has boosted growth potential to the maximum relative to its ageing population, boasting among the highest rates of labour force participation and effective retirement age among the industrialises world.

Country Report

Israel (Country Report)

Israel’s small but technologically advanced free-market economy, located in an important and geopolitically high risk region, was and still is doing remarkably well. The short-term outlook is also encouraging.

Country Report

Botswana (Country report)

Botswana’s economy is recovering from the global crisis that especially hit its export sector. In 2011, the economy is expected to grow by 6%, from 7.2% in 2010. In addition, the current account deficit will shrink to 0.1% of GDP in 2011 (from 2.4% of GDP in 2010), signalling an increase in external demand for Botswana’s diamond exports.

Economic Report

The history of financial crises

The world is littered with financial crises, yet we seem surprised every time they occur. Against this backdrop, we take a closer look at the financial crises since 1800 to see whether we can draw some lessons for the future.

Economic Report

What if AAAmerica gets downgraded?

Long-standing concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal imbalances have finally led to the first ‘negative outlook’ for the AAA-rating of US sovereign debt by S&P.

Economic Report

The Rabo Sovereign Vulnerability Index

After the dismal failures of the financial markets to correctly price sovereign risk before the crisis, one must be aware that they can still over-or underprice sovereign risk in some countries.

Country Report

Cameroon (Country Report)

Cameroon performs well on almost all macroeconomic indicators: inflation is low, the fiscal and current accounts are almost in balance and debt levels are sustainable. Nonetheless, GDP growth is low at 2.8% (2010).

Country Report

Serbia (Country Report)

Serbia’s economy is still weak as it posts twin deficits. The balance of payments position is weak as the continuously large current account deficits require debt financing. Even so, Serbia’s external position has improved since the nadir during the global financial crisis in 2008.