RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Country Report

Peru: positive economic outlook

Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.

Economic Report

Brexit vote lowers economic growth in the eurozone

We expect that UK’s vote to leave the EU will negatively affect economic growth in the eurozone. We believe that the impact in 2016 is rather small, but we lower our growth forecast for 2017 for both the eurozone and the Netherlands by ¼%-point.

Country Report

Saudi Arabia: reforms are necessary to reduce economic reliance on oil

Lower oil prices put increased pressure on the Saudi economy. Growth is slowing down and the fiscal situation is under pressure. Implementation of the diversification plan (vision 2030) would be a positive factor, but will be difficult to achieve.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates: weathering low oil prices on the back of large buffers

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.