RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Special

Latin America: FX, risk, carry and central banks

Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.

Special Dutch version

The GCC: going cold turkey on oil?

The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries suffer from the oil price slump while diversification will prove difficult. In the short-run, the necessary budgetary consolidation Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will weigh on political risk.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: many risks but no new Asian crisis in the making

A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: agricultural perspectives

Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.