Special Dutch version
The global economy has been growing at a moderate rate of around 3 per cent for many years. We expect to see similar growth figures in the coming years. But the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has hugely raised the level of global uncertainty.
Sunday 4 December, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform that should support policymaking in Italy. Yet the reform is not without downsides. The suggestion that a 'No'-vote would put Italy on a path towards leaving the Eurozone is wrong.
Housing prices in China have been rising rapidly since the beginning of 2015 and it is the question whether or not this is supported by economic fundamentals. Possible negative economic consequences might be severe, since 12% of Chinese urban inhabitants live in ‘bubble-cities’.
In this Special we focus on political exit contagion risk of ‘Brexit’ to other EU countries. We look at the current political landscape in the EU and the rising trend of Euroscepticism. Although we still consider a repeat of ‘Brexit’ more unlikely than likely in all member states, some countries are certainly worth watching in the year ahead.
The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.
Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.
Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.
Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.
Special Dutch version
Our analysis shows that many Dutch banks that from the start focused on serving private customers and small businesses have been operating with relatively low leverage ratios for 100 years or more. This Special is intended to contribute to a more factual debate.
The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.