RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The voice of Italy

Sunday 4 December, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform that should support policymaking in Italy. Yet the reform is not without downsides. The suggestion that a 'No'-vote would put Italy on a path towards leaving the Eurozone is wrong.

Special

EU exit contagion risk

In this Special we focus on political exit contagion risk of ‘Brexit’ to other EU countries. We look at the current political landscape in the EU and the rising trend of Euroscepticism. Although we still consider a repeat of ‘Brexit’ more unlikely than likely in all member states, some countries are certainly worth watching in the year ahead.

Special

Latin America: FX, risk, carry and central banks

Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.

Special Dutch version

The GCC: going cold turkey on oil?

The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries suffer from the oil price slump while diversification will prove difficult. In the short-run, the necessary budgetary consolidation Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will weigh on political risk.

Special Dutch version

Monetary challenges in Europe

The results of unprecedented monetary easing measures in the past several years have been relatively disappointing so far. Furthermore, this policy also carries risks, such as excessive valuations in financial instruments and a deterioration in the functioning of markets.