Economic Report
Spain will hold early elections on 28 April. The short-term economic impact will be limited, but public finances will be worse off in 2019. The longer-term impact is difficult to assess based on current polls, but it could well be positive.
Economic Comment
We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.
Economic Report
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Special
The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.
Economic Comment
The German economy is gradually losing momentum. Car sales are recovering, but damage of the third quarter of 2018 has not been repaired yet. Declining IFO indices also point at lower growth, but not a recession.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.
Special
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.
Economic Update
French President Macron struggles with low approval ratings and decreasing economic confidence, despite a strong parliamentary mandate for reform and upward economic potential. The 2019 budget proposal reduces the size of government, modest improvements in public finances and stimulus for private demand.
Economic Report Dutch version
On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The economic outlook for the global economy remains positive, but risks of a correction have increased sharply as a result of increasing trade tensions. Geopolitical risks and vulnerabilities in various emerging economies are also worrying.
Economic Update Dutch version
Spain’s economy has started the year on a strong footing with 0.7% quarterly growth. We expect the economy to grow with 2.8% in 2018 compared to just above 2% growth in the Eurozone. The Catalan crisis has had limited economic impact so far.
