RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Out of control

An extension of article 50 is highly likely now that the British Parliament approved this outcome on 14 March, However, given complications around holding a third meaningful vote on the deal, the final decision on the extension could come as late as 29 March.

Economic Report

Recession United States on the radar

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

Special

French Reforms: A bumpy road lies ahead

Macron’s ambitious reform plans were blocked by the yellow vests protests last year. In an attempt to reaffirm his authority he has launched the “Grand National Debate”. Afterwards Macron will announce his new plans.

Economic Comment

China: weak start of the Year of the Pig

The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.

Economic Report

United States: Return of the US debt ceiling

After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Leading on the edge or off the edge?

On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.

Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.