RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Economic Comment

Economische turbulentie in Turkije: Vraag en antwoord (Dutch)

De waarde van de Turkse lira kende de afgelopen twee weken een sterke terugval, nadat politieke spanningen tussen Turkije en de Verenigde Staten opliepen en investeerders bovendien hun vertrouwen verloren in het Turkse economische en monetaire beleid.

Country Report

Turkey: ongoing political instabiliy

Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Economic Comment

Turkey: surprise landslide victory ensures AKP single-party rule

The AKP’s surprise victory at Turkey’s snap elections restores political stability, but the new cabinet needs to embark on structural reforms and boost central bank independency to uphold investor confidence amid elevated balance-of-payments risks.

Economic Report

Turkije: hoogste tijd voor een nieuwe regering (Dutch)

De verkiezingen van 1 november zullen meer duidelijkheid geven over de toekomstige politieke ontwikkelingen in Turkije, maar een einde van de instabiliteit lijkt niet in zicht. Hierdoor blijft het land buitengewoon kwetsbaar voor abrupte kapitaaluitstroom.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Political pressure on the central bank ahead of parliamentary elections contributed to a strong depreciation of the Turkish lira. Concerns about a possible executive presidency after elections and more populist economic policies unnerve investors.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s external vulnerabilities decreased in the first quarter of this year, as the current account deficit started to decline and net capital inflows resumed. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Erdoğan’s dominant position was strengthened by his party’s victory at the March 30th municipal elections.