RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Brexit Monitor: The negotiations continue

The choice of the British population to leave the EU will have significant consequences for the relationship between the EU and the UK. Our Brexit Monitor helps you keep track of the latest Brexit developments and prepare for things to come.

Economic Comment

Brexit update: entering overtime

The UK brought the Brexit talks with the EU to a stand-still on 14 October. EU’s original deadline for a signed deal has been missed. We now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as those of a deal.

Economic Comment

De-dramatising Salzburg

The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.

Column

There is no such thing as a costless Brexit

Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.

Column

Brexit aan de hand van een kop thee (Dutch)

Deal or no deal, sommige dingen veranderen sowieso in het handelen met het VK na Brexit. Zo vervallen alle internationale overeenkomsten van de EU voor het VK, tenzij tegenpartijen verlenging verschaffen. En dat kan de Britse uitvoer flink duurder maken.

Economic Report

Brexit update: squaring the circle

The UK government published a long awaited White Paper on the blueprint for the post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. The proposal brings more clarity but not more certainty. Hence the threat of a hard Brexit persists.

Economic Report

Brexit update: the day of reckoning

On 6 July PM May and her cabinet agreed on a blueprint for the future EU-UK economic relationship, one that keeps close ties to the EU post-Brexit and angered the Brexiteers. PM May averts another crisis but is not out of the woods yet.

Economic Report

Brexit update: May-be later

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, averts another crisis and pushes the Brexit can down the road making it likely that the Brexit negotiations run into further delays and the withdrawal agreement is ready only towards the end of 2018.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: op eigen benen (Dutch)

De markten zijn lang gepamperd door de ECB, maar moeten weer op eigen benen leren staan. Zowel de korte als de lange rentes zullen echter aan de lage kant blijven. Het oplopende renteverschil met de VS zorgt voor toenemende druk op de eurodollar.