RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Morocco (Country report)

Morocco’s stable growth and banking sector, despite the global crisis, mark the county’s present relatively sound economic state.

Economic Comment

Limited direct Greek contagion through banking sector

In the discussion on whether or not governments should bail out Greece, it has often been argued that by providing loans to Greece, the other eurozone governments are rescuing their domestic banks.

Economic Report

Is Britain the next Greece?

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Economic Report

Liquidity requirements from Basel make life tougher for banks

In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision made proposals to harmonise the oversight of banks’ liquidity. Are these new requirements even more stringent for the banking sector than the proposals for tighter capital requirements?

Special

Demystifying the paths towards debt sustainability

In this study the policy options: defaulting on debt obligations, withdrawing support measure for the banking sector, increasing inflation, boosting GDP growth and introducing austerity measures that governments have at their disposal are discussed.

Economic Report

India looking East

India has never been a big player in international trade. Nevertheless, over the past twenty years, the country has developed its trade relations. India started in 1991 with its ‘Look East’ policy, trying to gain better access to regional markets in Asia.

Country Report

Cameroon (Country report)

In the past, Cameroon benefited from being a small oil-exporting economy (10% of GDP, but 40% of exports and fiscal revenues in 2008). Oil exploitation created fluctuating trade and budget surpluses and attracted inward foreign investments.

Economic Comment

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again?

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economic Comment

Germany: Will growth also disappoint in H1 2010?

We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.

Economic Comment

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt?

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Economic Report

The return of IFI lending

The global financial crisis has brought the IMF, the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI’s) back to the spotlights. With large emergency loan packages, they have helped countries to deal with the severe economic shocks.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary struggled through the financial and economic crisis in 2009. The economy shrunk by 7% and there was little room for fiscal stimulus as Hungary had to adhere to the conditions of the IMF attached to the aid package.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Similar to other Eastern European countries, the financial crisis hit Bulgaria mainly through a drop in export demand, tighter credit facilities and general risk aversion against the region. The economy shrunk by 5% in 2009.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

The global recession in 2009 hit Malaysia via the trade channel. The highly export dependent economy experienced a steep decline in external demand for its export products last year.