RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.

Special

Four rays of hope amid the gloom of coronavirus

The coronavirus has a devastating impact on societies and economies, but never before have so many resources been channelled at finding ways to mitigate a virus. Hopes are pinned on vaccines, medicines, testing and increased health care capacity.

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.

Special

Hoe houdbaar is de stijging van de kapitaalmarktrente? (Dutch)

De rentemarkten weerspiegelen een te rooskleurig beeld na de forse stijging van de kapitaalmarktrentes in de tweede helft van 2016. Het ECB beleid, en dus het aankoopprogramma, gaat vooralsnog door tot eind 2017. De resultaten van dit programma zijn echter beperkt en de grenzen zijn niet oneindig oprekbaar.