RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Report

Going down: Revising our economic forecasts for India

We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.

Economic Report

India’s worrying inflation dynamics

Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.

Economic Comment

Japan: A farewell to Abe

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.