RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Italy: elections unlikely to hamper economic recovery

Italians are very upbeat and don’t seem to worry about the upcoming elections. The short-term economic outlook is quite rosy. We expect the next government won’t endanger the recovery, but at the same time won’t improve the weak long-term outlook either.

Special Dutch version

Italian elections: three scenario’s

The Italian elections on March 4 will likely yield a hung parliament. The reform outlook is weak and some fiscal slippage is likely. We believe the risk of an unexperienced nationalist government is limited, but the market might well be underpricing risks.

Economic Quarterly Report

Eurozone: alle signalen staan op groen (Dutch)

Het cyclische herstel in de eurozone heeft stevige voet aan de grond en houdt zichzelf in stand. Waarschijnlijk houdt de hoge groei nog minstens een tot anderhalf jaar aan. Het economisch sentiment is op het hoogste punt sinds 2011 en is breed gedragen.

Economic Report

Italy: to trigger or not to trigger elections

Renzi has resigned as party leader, but he is bound to make a comeback in the spring. The chance of early elections in the fall is a bit larger than that of elections in 2018. In any case, the efficiency of the next government is likely to be weak.