RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Economic Update Dutch version

Germany: higher growth, but the risks are increasing

We expect the German economy to grow by 1¾% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. However, an escalation of the refugee problem, spread of the emissions scandal at Volkswagen to other car manufacturers and more negative news on the performance of the Chinese economy could affect the solid base of the German economy.

Special

Duitsland: regionale verschillen in de economische structuur (Dutch)

Duitsland kent aanzienlijke regionale verschillen, niet alleen tussen de voormalige DDR en de voormalige BRD, maar ook tussen het zuiden en de rest van Duitsland. Ook nemen de verschillen tussen de grootstedelijke agglomeraties en het platteland toe.

Special

Negatieve rente? De ene rente is de andere niet (Dutch)

Het ECB beleid leidt tot lage en soms negatieve rentes in geldmarkten, op staatsleningen en op sommige bancaire producten. In het bankwezen staat de rentemarge onder druk; spaarrentes kunnen slechts beperkt omlaag, terwijl leenrentes verder dalen.

Economic Report Dutch version

Macroeconomic developments in Europe

We expect growth in Europe to accelerate gradually, although the economy has far from fully recovered from the Global Financial Crisis. Substantial deterioration in the Greek situation and/or the geopolitical conflicts remain downside risks.