RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

India: what is the economic impact of the new stimulus package?

The announced stimulus package in October will support the ailing banking sector, but we expect limited additional effects on economic growth of India (of 0.2ppts in fiscal year 2018/2019). Moreover, it is a missed opportunity that the package does not contain measures to foster total factor productivity growth.

Economic Report

India: where is the negative impact of demonetization?

The Indian economy grew by 7% in Q4 of 2016, which is surprising given that India was struck by an unexpected demonetization operation. The explanation can be found in underrepresentation of the informal economy in statistics and overestimation of the role of the private corporate sector.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: agricultural perspectives

Asia Pacific is a decisive component in the global food chain. Asia’s large and growing population and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for food, agricultural commodities and resources. But Asia cannot produce enough to support itself.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: can Asia’s convergence story continue?

Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.