RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Economic Report

The great Brexit gamble paid off

The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Special

The Great Brexit Gamble

Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

Economic Report

Brexit update: May-be later

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, averts another crisis and pushes the Brexit can down the road making it likely that the Brexit negotiations run into further delays and the withdrawal agreement is ready only towards the end of 2018.