RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: redders in nood? (Dutch)

De financiële markten zijn in de ban van het coronavirus. De rentes dalen hard en er wordt gerekend op een helpende hand van de centrale banken. Ook de dollar heeft veel terrein prijs moeten geven, maar zal dit waarschijnlijk weer terugwinnen.

Special

India: Economic Outlook 2020

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Economic Comment Dutch version

China: Domestic cooling down while external heat rises further

Most recent monthly figures confirm our view of a continuous slowdown of economic growth. More stimulus is on the cards, but this will be less massive and more targeted than during previous episodes. The trade war developments can be characterized by ‘one step forward, two steps back’.