RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

Special

US-China trade war: no turning back

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth

The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.

Column

Mist ondernemend Nederland de boot naar India? (Dutch)

Van de historisch sterke handelsbetrekkingen tussen Nederland en India is vandaag de dag nog maar weinig over. Nederlandse ondernemers laten daarmee kansen liggen in een land wat de komende decennia zal verrijzen als belangrijkste economie ter wereld.

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.