RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Special

India: Economic Outlook 2020

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Economic Report

The great Brexit gamble paid off

The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.