RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

China: The wider implications of Huarong’s woes

One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.

Column

Waarom het Chinees vijfjarenplan op een Rubiks kubus lijkt (Dutch)

Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.

Economic Report

China GDP growth outlook: Still recovering, but losing steam

China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Column

Hoe China een blik biedt in ons herstel (Dutch)

Het economisch herstel van China biedt wellicht een kijkje in de toekomst van Nederland. Daar is het initiële herstel snel gegaan, maar het laatste gedeelte gaat langzamer.

Special

China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds

China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.

Economic Comment

China: Increasing self-reliance

China’s new Five Year Plan signals the country’s increased focus on self-reliance. Meanwhile, the economic recovery is continuing. Tensions between the US and China are here to stay, irrespective of who the new US president will be.

Column

Trump gebruikt onzekerheid als wapen tegen China (Dutch)

Het verbannen van Chinese bedrijven in de VS is economisch gezien schadelijk voor zowel China als Amerika. Toch is het niet verrassend dat Trump hiervoor kiest. Het gaat hem namelijk niet om het geld, maar om de macht.

Special

How COVID-19 will impact ASEAN: Deep recessions and a weak recovery

We think most ASEAN economies will enter a deep recession this year. The recovery next year will be modest, held back by weak external demand, social distancing and weak consumer sentiment. Also, ASEAN currencies will face another bout of depreciations.