RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Special

Oil: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.