RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Biden opts for continuity at the Fed: Powell nominated for second term

Biden’s nominatie van Powell voor een tweede termijn als Fed-voorzitter zou gunstig moeten zijn voor de onafhankelijkheid van de Fed van partijpolitiek. Echter, het is een nederlaag voor de linkervleugel van de Democratische partij die een voorkeur zou hebben voor een kandidaat die de impact van monetair beleid op vermogensongelijkheid terugdraait.

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Special

United States infrastructure: Impact on economy and elections

Although the bipartisan infrastructure package is long overdue given the state of the infrastructure of the United States, it will hit the economy at a time of full employment and after a couple of years of high inflation. This means that the bang for the buck will be substantially eroded.

Economic Comment

COP26, What Can We Expect?

To “keep the 1.5°C target alive” within COP26, we need more stringent targets for 2030, not only for 2050. Progress could come from new methane emissions targets and through advancements in discussions on Paris Agreement Rulebook and climate finance.

Special

Australia: Economic update

The Australian economy is set to contract in Q3, modestly rebounding in Q4. Inflation risk are likely, as gas and freight prices rise steeply. Australia must balance existing economic ties to China with increasing geostrategic ties to the west.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Special

Gasflation

US and European natural gas prices have jumped to multi-year highs; to the extent that comparisons with the 1970’s oil crises are perhaps not as far-fetched as some would think.

Special

Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap

Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.

Special

Germany: better times ahead?

The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.