RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) making a policy error?

We believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is making a policy error after the last MPC meeting by keeping its policy rates on hold. There is a risk that the RBI is underestimating the inflationary pressure in the Indian economy and the impact of the ongoing Fed tightening cycle.

Economic Report

Weathering the Indian rupee storm

The Indian rupee is the worst performing currency in Asia, losing 12% this year. We use two approaches (an EM Vulnerability Heatmap and an integrated model) to delve deeper into the fundamentals of the INR and assess whether the current weak levels are justified.

Special

Emerging Markets Vulnerability Heatmap

We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.

Special

An assessment of the Indian rupee crisis

The Indian rupee (INR) has been the worst performing currency in Asia, losing more than 12%. Given the outcome of our EM Vulnerability Heatmap, models and expected additional policy interventions, we expect strengthening of the Indian rupee in the short term.

Special

De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)

Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.

Economic Report

The downsides of India’s oil addiction

The oil market is going through a rocky period. Large net oil importing emerging markets, such as India, are vulnerable, but exactly how vulnerable? In this column we show the economic impact in case of a mild and severe oil price shock.