RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Grieks akkoord omzeilt hete hangijzers (Dutch)

Het IMF is met de Europese geldschieters overeengekomen om de Griekse overheidsschuld gedeeltelijk te herstructureren. De genomen maatregelen zijn echter een kleine en nog altijd uitermate onzekere stap in de richting van schuldhoudbaarheid.

Economic Comment

Meevallende krimp in het eurogebied (Dutch)

De economische krimp in het eurogebied was in het derde kwartaal iets kleiner dan een kwartaal eerder. Dat is positiever dan wij verwacht hadden. Wij denken dat de krimp in het laatste kwartaal van het jaar weer sterker zal zijn.

Economic Comment

Economic visibility must improve quickly

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economic Comment

How are exposures to periphery evolving?

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: nog geen reden tot juichen (Dutch)

De economische activiteit in de eurozone is in het tweede kwartaal van 2012 licht gekrompen (-0,2% k-o-k). Een meevaller, aangezien veel economen -onder wie wijzelf- rekening hielden met zwaardere krimp.

Economic Comment

Central banks to the rescue (Macro Comment)

Central banks from around the globe have recently become more active in supporting growth. These actions are very welcome and may offer some hope for battered Western economies.

Economic Comment

German deliberations on the ESM

On July 10, the German Constitutional Court holds the first hearing regarding appeals against the ESM, the fiscal compact and an amendment to Article 136 TFEU, which legally anchors a stability mechanism in the Treaty.

Economic Comment

United Kingdom: Opening the monetary spigots

The UK monetary authorities have come up with new credit easing and quantitative easing measures to jump-start the ailing economy. We continue to remain unconvinced that these measures will materially alter the economic outlook.

Economic Comment

Grieken kiezen voor Europese dialoog (Dutch)

De uitslag van de Franse en met name Griekse parlementsverkiezingen werken een pro-Europese samenwerking en hervormingen in de hand en zijn daarmee gunstiger dan vooraf gevreesd.

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Economic Comment

Eurozone in milde recessie (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

Het eurogebied is volgens de gangbare definitie van twee kwartalen krimp van het BBP net niet terug in recessie. Sentimentindicatoren voor april en de hernieuwde onrust over de Europese schuldencrisis wijzen echter op hernieuwde krimp in 12K2.

Economic Comment

Verkiezingen bepalen Europese koers (Dutch)

De impact van de Franse en Griekse verkiezingsuitslag kan nog niet volledig worden overzien. Wel lijkt duidelijk dat de Griekse uitslag de onrust rondom het land en haar schuldhoudbaarheid de komende maanden kan blijven voeden.

Economic Comment

UK: Expansionary fiscal austerity is a myth

The recent GDP release suggests that the UK has also joined the recessionary club. However, reliable leading indicators point to a high chance of output being eventually revised upwards.

Economic Comment

Turkey: growth slows, but worries remain

Turkey’s economic growth slowed in 4Q11. Still, volatile growth rates, combined with large current account deficits and stubbornly high inflation rates remain worrisome.