RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Digitaal centralebankgeld: bezint eer ge begint (Dutch)

De WRR bepleit invoering van digitaal centralebankgeld (CBDC). Dit is een forse verandering van het financiële stelsel. Het leidt tot hoge kosten, kan de stabiliteit ondermijnen en noopt tot een nieuwe inrichting van het bancaire toezicht. Goed idee?

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Game over?

Theresa May has said she will resign on 7 June, after her last attempt to save the EU-UK deal failed to garner sufficient support last week. A tougher stance on Brexit and more political turmoil are likely to follow.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Going nowhere fast

The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization

China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.

Economic Comment

Eurozone growth accelerates in the first quarter of 2019

Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2019. Domestic demand in the Eurozone is expected to be the main driver as external demand was weak. Italy climbed out of recession in the first quarter of 2019, while Spain remains the Eurozone’s bright star.

Economic Report

Is India slipping back into bad habits?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Flextension, the sequel

Article 50 was extended for a second time during a special EU summit on 10 April. The new cut-off date is 31 October, the date by which the UK must have approved the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and have translated it to domestic law. An earlier departure is possible as soon as the UK ratifies a withdrawal deal with the EU.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: In uncharted territory, again

Article 50 was extended during the EU Summit of 21-22 March. The new cut-off date is 12 April, the deadline for UK to either approve the Withdrawal Agreement or come up with a follow up plan that includes a decision on holding European Parliament (EP) elections.