RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Country Report

Zambia: headwinds due to low copper prices

Low copper prices and lower copper production have pulled the trade balance in negative territory and increased the budget deficit. This combined with a sharp depreciation of the kwacha has increased public debt.

Country Report

Country Report Zambia

Lower copper prices, excessive public spending and the death of President Stata have turned 2014 into a challenging year for Zambia, but small improvements bode well for the future.

Country Report

Country Report Mozambique

Mozambique’s economic growth remains strong, but increasing fiscal imbalances might become a challenge in the medium term. A ceasefire agreement between Renamo and Frelimo represents a significant improvement of domestic security and stability.

Country Report

Country Report Mauritius

Economic growth in Mauritius continues to be suppressed by subdued external demand from Europe. Meanwhile, flash floods in the beginning of 2013 and an increased wage bill have driven up government expenditure.

Country Report

Country Report Kenya

2013 was a crucial year for Kenya, as domestic political stability improved on the back of peaceful elections, which contributed to better economic prospects. Unfortunately, these improvements were offset by an increasing terrorist security threat.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Two political assassinations threw Tunisia in a crisis and hurt economic growth in 2013. In 2014, the political and security environment improved, as a new technocratic government fostered progress on the transition to democracy.

Country Report

Country Report Botswana

As Botswana is heading for elections, more is likely to stay the same. The same party will continue to rule (since 1966), and the country remains overly dependent on diamonds.

Country Report

Country Report Angola

Stagnating oil production lowered economic growth in 2013, highlighting Angola’s dependence on the energy sector. The political scene was dominated by a succession debate.

Country Report

Country Report Ghana

Economic growth in Ghana has fallen somewhat, but is likely to remain relatively high. However, high twin deficits leave the country vulnerable to a deterioration of external conditions.

Country Report

Country Report Ethiopia

Ethiopia continues to record robust growth. However, the state-led development model is con-straining the private sector and has resulted, from time to time, in macroeconomic imbalances, and therefore seems unsustainable in the long term.

Country Report

Country Report Nigeria

After a rebasing exercise, Nigeria became the largest economy of Africa. However, this does not reduce Nigeria’s large structural issues, and instability and violence could worsen ahead of elections in 2015.

Country Report

Country Report South Africa

After a highly difficult 2013, in which domestic and global developments exposed South Africa’s vulnerabilities, ANC’s victory in May’s elections should improve policy and economic perspectives.