RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The US-China trade war in the rerun

The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization

China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.

Economic Comment

China: weak start of the Year of the Pig

The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.