RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Recession United States on the radar

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

Economic Report

United States: Return of the US debt ceiling

After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.

Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.

Economic Report

Trump’s midterm exam

The midterm elections on November 6 will be crucial for President Trump’s ability to govern in the next two years, especially on domestic issues. Consequently, President Trump’s actions in the near-term should be seen from this perspective.

Economic Report

De onvermoede voortgang van Trump (Dutch)

Ruim één jaar na de inauguratie van Donald Trump zijn de eerste successen geboekt: een ingrijpende belastingwet is getekend en de regeldruk voor het bedrijfsleven is verminderd. Handelsmaatregelen bleven achter bij de campagneretoriek, maar kunnen in 2018 alsnog van de grond komen.