RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Economic Report

China: economische groei koelt steeds verder af (Dutch)

Zoals verwacht zet de groeivertraging in China door. Als gevolg van zorgen over de afkoelende binnenlandse economie zijn beleidmakers weer begonnen met stimuleren. Vooralsnog is de directe impact van de handelsoorlog niet zichtbaar in Chinese handelscijfers, maar escalatie daarvan hangt als een zwaard van Damocles boven de economie.