The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.
Handelsspanningen tussen de VS en China lijken kleiner te worden na de recente onderhandelingen, maar fundamentele verschillen blijven bestaan, bijvoorbeeld op het terrein van bescherming van intellectueel eigendom en ‘Made in China 2025’. Verder is het niet ondenkbaar dat de handelspuzzel inmiddels ook geopolitieke stukjes bevat.
The choice of the UK to leave the EU will have significant consequences for trade between the EU and the UK and will affect many companies. Our Brexit Monitor tracks the latest Brexit developments and anticipates on further progress.
Special Dutch version
In this publication we look at three different indications pointing at increasing US recessionary risks. Our treasury yield curve model suggests a 27% probability of a recession in the 17-month window. This probability is much higher than the recession expectation of the NY Fed.
Economic Update Dutch version
Spain’s economy has started the year on a strong footing with 0.7% quarterly growth. We expect the economy to grow with 2.8% in 2018 compared to just above 2% growth in the Eurozone. The Catalan crisis has had limited economic impact so far.