RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Franse btw-verhoging lijkt doel te missen (Dutch)

Na het verlies van de AAA-rating bij Standard & Poor’s kondigde president Sarkozy economische hervormingen aan. Afgelopen weekend maakte hij onder andere bekend het btw-tarief te willen verhogen.

Economic Comment

Schuldencrisis kost Frankrijk haar AAA (Dutch)

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) heeft afgelopen vrijdag de rating van negen eurozone landen verlaagd. Frankrijk, na Duitsland de tweede economie van de eurozone, verliest haar AAA-rating.

Economic Comment

Maakt of volgt S&P de markt? (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

De grote rating-actie van S&P zal waarschijnlijk slechts beperkte gevolgen hebben voor de staatsrentes in het eurogebied. Maar het benadrukt wel het grote aantal onzekerheden dat de komende tijd voor onrust op de financiële markten kan zorgen.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy showed its resilience in 11Q3, but we expect the negative effects of the debt crisis to become more visible in the coming months. There is no reason for much optimism.

Economic Comment

Is a weaker euro desirable now?

The depreciation of the euro may not result in the much-needed boost to the region’s net exports. However, it is making life difficult for households. The rise in the price of oil to near record highs is adding to eurozone’s economic woes.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

We kick-started the new year with a slew of positive news. December’s leading indicators were stronger than expected, which indicate that the economy may have gained a bit of momentum going into 2012.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje (Dutch)

In 11K3 wist de export de Spaanse economie nog uit recessie te houden. Maar de beschikbare gegevens voor 11K4 wijzen op economische krimp. Ook voor het eerste kwartaal van dit jaar verwachten wij een daling van het BBP-volume.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

In 11Q3, export growth managed to keep the Spanish economy out of recession. But the available economic data for 11Q4 point to GDP contraction in that quarter. For the first quarter of this year we also expect GDP to fall.

Economic Comment

Hungary: Jumping off a cliff? (Macro Comment)

Hungary’s government is becoming increasingly autocratic, thereby threatening to undo years of democracy-building, while simultaneously risking a sovereign default.

Economic Comment

Is the global economy stabilising?

The December manufacturing PMIs have surprised on the upside. We should take comfort that the deterioration in PMIs is nowhere close to what we witnessed at the height of the crisis in 2008-09.