RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Spain

We expect the recovery in 2011 to be sluggish, similar to last year. Domestic demand is unlikely to grow robustly, while export boosting gains on the back of increased price competitiveness have hardly been realised. As such, it is important that wage growth does not rise in line with inflation. Though this is bad for purchasing power and consumption, it is necessary for the rebalancing of the economy.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy appears to be closing the year strongly in 10Q4, fuelled partly by robust private consumption. When consumers will be restrained in 2011 by austerity measures and slower growth of purchasing power, producers could step in to fill this gap with rising investments. Despite their rising (foreign) order outlook, limited domestic demand and low capacity utilisation mean this scenario is far from certain.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recovery had plenty of pace in the closing stages of 2010. That said, the services sector weakened considerably. We expect private consumption to grow robustly in 10Q4. But consumption growth in 2011 will be weak amid the upcoming fiscal squeeze.

Economic Comment

Demystifying the German labour market

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Economic Comment

Is the G20 making an undesirable U-turn?

The finance ministers of the G20 have called for an end to expansionary fiscal policies in their latest communiqué. This can prove costly while households and firms are still busy repairing their balance sheets and facing massive headwinds.

Economic Comment

Limited direct Greek contagion through banking sector

In the discussion on whether or not governments should bail out Greece, it has often been argued that by providing loans to Greece, the other eurozone governments are rescuing their domestic banks.

Economic Comment

Are markets mispricing sovereign default risk again?

Some politicians and market participants are proposing to ban the trading of naked CDSs amid the surge in government bond yields. In our view, therefore, politicians must come up with austerity measures instead of searching for scapegoats.

Economic Comment

Germany: Will growth also disappoint in H1 2010?

We expect Germany’s economy to be supported by the inventory correction as well as external demand in H1 2010. There are, however, significant downside risks to this forecast.

Economic Comment

Will Greece face trouble rolling over its debt?

Rumours are mounting that a Greek syndicated bond issue is to be launched within days. This is an important event as the success or failure of such issuance will determine whether the Greeks have to go cap in hand to the European Commission or not.

Economic Comment

Should the Greeks go on a holiday?

Some market participants and notable economists are arguing that Greece needs to exit the eurozone, even temporarily, in order to regain its external competitiveness. As attractive as this option sounds, we are inclined to strongly disagree.

Economic Comment

Griekse 'boekhoudtrucs' geen nieuws (Dutch)

Griekenland is deze week weer in het nieuws; haar overheid zou boekhoudkundige trucs gebruiken om de staatsschuld er lager uit te laten zien dan deze is. Maar de nieuwswaarde voor wat betreft de analyse van de Griekse overheidsfinanciën is gering.