RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Six months ahead of its euro area accession, Lithuania’s economy performs strongly. While reciprocal EU and Russian sanctions are unlikely to derail growth this year, tensions with Russia may result in further boycotts of Lithuanian products.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s newly-elected government promised to embark on a comprehensive structural reform programme as the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated markedly, but the prospect of faltering economic growth could confront it with considerable social challenges.

Country Report

Country Report Austria

Austria’s economic growth is set to gain steam, but its banks may face rising challenges in Russia and Ukraine, where they have sizeable exposures. Meanwhile, the re-elected ‘Grand Coalition’ government finally decided on a bad bank solution for Hypo Alpe Adria.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia avoided a sovereign bail-out last year, as an asset quality review revealed manageable bank recapitalization costs. Yet, the country is not out of the woods yet, as its increasingly instable government struggles to rein in this year’s budget deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Thanks to a policy-induced rebound of domestic demand and solid exports, Hungary exited recession last year while keeping its budget deficit below 3% of GDP. Yet, sustainability concerns remain, as unorthodox policies will likely continue beyond the parliamentary elections in April.

Country Report

Country Report Latvia

Following a period of strict fiscal consolidation and economic rebalancing, Latvia joined the euro area in 2014. Its economy continues to rebound strongly from a very deep recession in 2009 despite tight local credit conditions and weak external demand.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy regained steam in the second half of 2013, as domestic demand gradually picked up. Yet, depending on the decision of the Constitutional Court on a major pension reform, growth could be dampened by additional fiscal austerity measures.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania has embarked on a gradual export-driven economic recovery, but domestic demand has yet to pick up. Amid rising domestic political tensions, policymaking could come to a standstill until presidential elections are held in November.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Following successful internal devaluation and economic rebalancing, Lithuania currently ranks among the EU’s fastest-growing members. Its new government remains committed to fiscal consolidation in order to qualify for euro accession by 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Benefitting from firming external demand, Poland’s economy gradually turns the corner and its external position improves. Yet, weaker growth left its mark on public finances, forcing the government to take steps to avoid mandatory spending cuts.