RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Bermuda (Country report)

Being renowned for its business-friendly tax climate and sophisticated financial infrastructure, the country has become the largest (re)insurance jurisdiction in the World after New York and London. Maintaining Bermuda’s favourable operating environment for the financial sector is a key policy objective.

Country Report

Canada (Country report)

Canada remains a well governed country and boasts a strong economy. The economic recovery is underway and risks to household finances are acknowledged and addressed.

Country Report

Bahrein (Country report)

Bahrain is a rich, small, liberal and free-trade island economy, which houses an important regional financial center and some major oil and aluminum processing plants. This combined with its strategic position between Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and nuclear Iran caused the US navy to select this kingdom as its most important base in the Persian Gulf

Country Report

Turkey (Country report)

The sudden contraction of the economy in 2009 was followed by a rapid recovery in 2010. Although the economy of Turkey is known for its flexibility, the risk of overheating has moved to the forefront.

Economic Report

Ook private schuldafbouw periferie noodzaak (Dutch)

De zorgelijke overheidsfinanciën van een aantal eurozonelanden zijn een bron van onrust voor financiële markten en beleidsmakers. Maar ook de private sector in deze landen heeft het afgelopen decennium een onhoudbaar hoge netto financiële verplichting opgebouwd.

Column

Osama, Obama en waardige Finnen? (Dutch)

Met de bekendmaking door de Amerikaanse president Obama van de dood van ’s werelds meest gezochte terrorist, Osama Bin Laden, ontstak Amerika in een vreugdestemming die ook de financiële markten (even) niet onberoerd liet.

Country Report

India (Country report)

India is showing very robust economic growth, after a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 9.1% yoy in 2010 and grow by 9.0% yoy in 2011. The largest country risks are found in the political and social situation.

Country Report

Russia (Country update)

Russia’s economic recovery from the global financial and economic crisis has been disappointing. Real GDP growth amounted to a slightly lower than expected 4% last year. In spite of recent high oil prices, growth actually slowed in the first quarter of this year.

Country Report

Croatia (Country report)

The Croatian economy is slowly recovering from the global crisis that hit the economy in 2009. The crisis further worsened the country’s twin deficits and external debt increased to 101% of GDP (2010). Moreover, unemployment rose from 15.1% in 2007, to 17.6% in 2010.

Country Report

China (Country update)

China’s economy continues to perform strongly in spite of numerous rounds of monetary tightening, with year-on-year (yoy) real GDP growth remaining steady at 9.8% and 9.7% in the last two quarters. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 5% yoy in each of the past three months.

Country Report

Angola (Country update)

Angola’s oil-based economy stands to benefit from the recent increase in oil prices. Oil exports account for 96% of total exports and generate 90% of all tax income. Higher oil prices will thus help Angola to recover from the global crisis that hit the country in 2008 and 2009. Consequently, we expect GDP growth to reach 7.9% in 2011 (from 1.7% in 2010).

Country Report

United Arab Emirates (Country report)

The UAE escaped the turmoil that hit the Arab world over the past months, as the social and economic causes of the unrest hardly applied to the emirates. There is no suppressed frustration like in Saudi Arabia. Rich, powerful and conservative Abu Dhabi dominates the federation, with modern and market-minded but indebted Dubai playing second fiddle.

Country Report

Vietnam (Country report)

Vietnam’s pro-growth policies will result in economic growth of around 6% year on year (yoy) in 2011, but at the expense of macro-economic stability. External imbalances are very high, as the current account posts large deficits and the country’s liquidity position is in a dismal state.

Country Report

Singapore (Country report)

Singapore has very healthy public finances, strong net-creditor position, solid economic fundamentals, and a stable political environment. Having said that, the large size of the country’s banking sector combined with a huge dependence on global demand makes Singapore’s economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks.