Special
The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.
Special
The Scottish regional election is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of the UK. Scottish independence has returned to the top of the agenda and the SNP will argue to have a fresh mandate. The economic argument for Scottish independence is weak, but the Conservatives aren’t in the position to credibly make this case.
Special
The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.
Special
The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.
Special
The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.
Special
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special
Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Special
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
Special
At first glance, the economy of the United Kingdom hasn’t suffered much from Brexit. However, appearances are deceiving and the steady growth of the past two years masks underlying Brexit damage.
Special
Prime Minister (PM) May’s long-awaited key speech on the future relationship with the EU provided a bit more clarity on the government’s preferred Brexit end-state, but brought few new insights.
Special Dutch version
The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.
Special
The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.