RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

UK: to QE or not to QE?

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Economic Report

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s oil and gas dependent economy has started to recover slowly from the sharp downturn in 2009, with real GDP growth estimated at 4.2% and 4% in the next two years.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country report)

The island of Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist economy which has sharply rebounded from the effects of the global financial crisis. Economic activity will expand by over 9% yoy in 2010, a large improvement from the 1.9% contraction in 2009.

Country Report

Maldives (Country report)

A structural country risk the Maldives are facing is climate change. If the sea level rises only by a couple of meters, the majority of the Maldives will be submerged. The political situation is very unstable, as the opposition and the ruling party are frequently at loggerheads hindering any progress on reforms.

Country Report

Angola (Country report)

Angola’s economic performance is almost completely determined by the global demand for oil. In fact, oil related taxes amount to 90% of total taxes. It is therefore not surprising that Angola’s economy took a hit when oil prices dropped dramatically as a result of the global recession

Economic Report

Deflation, here we come?

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Economic Report

Sterke Europese cooperatieve banken (Dutch)

De financiële perikelen voor landen en banken zijn nog niet voorbij. Wel is nu duidelijk dat Europese coöperatieve banken de initiële kredietcrisis van 2007-2008 relatief goed hebben doorstaan.

Economic Report

Continuing housing surplus in Ireland

Too many residential dwellings were built in Ireland for many years from the start of this century. The large number of assumptions and estimates precludes a precise estimation of the housing surplus in our analysis.

Country Report

Cyprus (Country report)

Cyprus has performed relatively well in the face of the global recession. Although it especially suffered from reduced foreign demand, growth is expected to pick up, albeit slowly.

Economic Report

Blijvend overschot aan Ierse huizen (Dutch)

Sinds het begin van deze eeuw zijn in Ierland te veel woningen gebouwd. Een precieze inschatting van het overschot aan woningen is niet mogelijk. Wel denken wij dat er tot en met 2009 een fors overschot van meer dan 100.000 woningen opgebouwd is.

Country Report

Ghana (Country update)

The large macroeconomic imbalances with which Ghana entered the global financial crisis have narrowed recently. However, there are still sizeable vulnerabilities.

Economic Report

UK Budget: good politics, bad economics?

The UK government claimed that the fiscal consolidation plan will be tough and they certainly did not disappoint. The government plans to reduce its structural budget deficit by 8% of GDP over the next five years.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

Morocco’s stable growth and banking sector, despite the global crisis, mark the county’s present relatively sound economic state.