RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - Eurozone

The eurozone economy seems to have entered a phase of modest recovery. But, worrisome public finances, limited investment demand and tight credit conditions continue to hamper growth. Current problems are unlikely to be solved by a banking union.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeelden eurozone (Dutch)

De groeicijfers van het tweede kwartaal van 2013 laten een gemengd beeld zien. Zo presteerde de Duitse economie goed, maar bleven Spanje en Italië in recessie. Onze Conjunctuurbeelden in één overzicht.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: één zwaluw, geen zomer (Dutch)

In 13K2 is de eurozone recessie tot een eind gekomen. Op het eerste gezicht stemmen harde data en sentimentsindicatoren positief over het toekomstig herstel. Verschillen tussen lidstaten zijn echter groot en economische tegenwinden blijven aanwezig.

Economic Update

Belgium: a bumpy road to recovery

In 13Q2, GDP growth turned positive after stagnation in 13Q1. Going forward, the recovery is expected to continue, but at a fairly slow pace and subject to downside risks. Robust labour market recovery is not expected before the end of the year.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Het BBP is in 13K1 met 0,1% gegroeid. Wij verwachten ook in 13K2 nog geen positieve impuls van de binnenlandse vraag. Door het overtreden van Europa's begrotingsregels, riskeert België een boete en moet de overheid extra bezuinigingen doorvoeren.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the first quarter GDP grew by 0.1%. We do not expect domestic demand to support economic activity in 13Q2. By violating EU's budgetary rules, Belgium risks a fine and the government is forced to announce additional fiscal austerity measures.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

While rising house prices and low interest rates have boosted growth, they have also led to increasing housing market risks amid high household indebtedness. That said, the strong fiscal position mitigates the risks to financial stability.

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

Growth is hampered by weak external demand and private sector deleveraging. Although the banking sector has come a long way in addressing its weaknesses, challenges remain. Danish public finances are healthy.

Country Report

Country Report Sweden

While weak external demand hampers growth, the country has ample space to stimulate domestic demand through expansionary policy. The strong fiscal position also mitigates the downside risks stemming from the private sector.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

Weaker growth prospects and political hurdles challenge the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity and the implementation of unpopular, yet necessary, reforms. That said, the country’s underlying economic fundamentals remain strong.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

In 2012, Italy’s GDP contracted amid harsh fiscal austerity measures and ongoing European debt crisis. The weak growth outlook in both the short and the long-term requires firm action by the government.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

The recovery of the Finnish economy slowed in 2012 and the growth outlook for 2013 is weak. The export dependent economy is struggling with weak external demand, but also with structural issues concerning its main export sectors.