Economic Update
Impact of tapering on emerging markets
In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
220 Publications
Economic Comment
Tapering, a game-changer?
The start of tapering in January 2014 is not expected to significantly change our global economic outlook. Nevertheless, it might have negative consequences for the bond markets of vulnerable countries, both in the emerging world and the eurozone.
Economic Update
Belgium: Good things come to those who wait
The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.
Economic Update
Russia: Economic slowdown continues
Russia’s economic activity has continued to slow in 13Q3 and we expect growth in 2013 as a whole to be around 1.5%. The economic slowdown is starting to adversely impact public finances. The central bank has left rates on hold for now, despite falling inflation.
Economic Update
Brazil: Economy contracts in third quarter 2013
The third quarter was disappointing for Brazil, as GDP contracted for the first time since 2009 on a quarterly basis. Growth in the coming quarters is likely to be somewhat stronger, but leading indicators suggest that momentum remains rather weak.
Economic Update
India: Good monsoon nurtures economic green shoots
We are finally seeing some positive news in the Indian economy, but the recovery remains fragile.
Economic Update
Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!
GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.
Economic Update
Spain: Basta recesión!
Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.
Economic Update
Germany: Steady as she goes
Once again, the German economy posted a positive growth figure in the third quarter. The increase has been entirely domestic-driven. We expect domestic demand to remain strong given the solid labour market and the positive investment outlook.
Economic Update
France: Nombres rouges
The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.
Country Report
Country Report Portugal
Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.
Country Report
Country Report Spain
The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.
Country Report
Country Report Italy
Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Will the Alert Mechanism Report 2014 improve economic rebalancing?
The European Commission will include a number of current account surplus countries in its ‘in-depth’ review. While this is welcome, we deem it unlikely that countries such as Germany and the Netherlands enter the excessive imbalance procedure.
