15 Publications

January 31, 2019 Economic Comment

Eurozone: A gradual slowdown, mounting challenges

GDP of the Eurozone grew with 0.2% in the 4th quarter. France and Spain performed better than expected, but Italy entered a recession with two quarters of negative growth rates.

January 24, 2019 Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

January 24, 2019 Column

Ook een ‘risicovrije’ betaalbank heeft nog steeds risico’s (Dutch)

Een betaalbank heeft nog steeds risico’s. Een betaalrekening bij zo’n bank is een stuk duurder dan wat u nu gewend bent. En een betaalbank financiert geen economische activiteit. Wat is de toegevoegde waarde dan?

January 21, 2019 Column Dutch version

Six of the last four recessions

Financial markets are signalling the risk of a recession. They might have cried wolf before, but it is still worth paying attention to them.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report Dutch version

China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)

Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.

January 21, 2019 Column

Een Britse ‘tragedy of the commons’ (Dutch)

Het conceptakkoord voor uittreding uit de EU werd weggestemd in het Britse ‘House of Commons’. De ontwikkelingen in het VK lijken op een klassieke ‘tragedy of the commons’, waarbij handelen vanuit eigenbelang leidt tot lagere collectieve welvaart.

January 21, 2019 Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 21, 2019 Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

January 18, 2019 Economic Report

Eurozone: Revisiting growth

The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.

January 17, 2019 Special

The US recession of 2020

The recent flattening of US treasury yield curve has activated our early warning system. Our model now gives a 69% chance of a recession by May 2020 and is increasingly pointing at 2020 as the year of the next recession.

January 15, 2019 Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

January 03, 2019 Special Dutch version

The global economy needs a new currency anchor

The US dollar has been the global anchor currency since 1944. This gives the US certain advantages, but it also brings negative consequences for international stability. The global economy needs a new anchor, independent from an individual country.