RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Regionale variatie in Europa (Dutch)

De ene regio in Europa heeft een veel hoger BRP dan de andere. In de meeste staten speelt het verschil tussen stad en land daarbij een rol. In Nederland draait het vooral om gas. Verschil in BRP per inwoner leidt hier en daar tot separatisme.

Economic Update

Italy: once in recession, always in recession?

In 14Q3, GDP volume contracted with 0.1% q-o-q. Investment acted as the largest drag on growth. In 2015, GDP volume is expected to grow slowly after three years of contraction, mostly on the back of foreign demand. Unemployment will remain high.

Economic Update

Spain: investment is back, consumption is up

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.

Economic Update

Germany: at least, it is no recession

German GDP-growth was weak in the third quarter. It was mainly driven by domestic consumption, while gross capital formation attributed negatively. Going forward, we expect this picture to remain unchanged.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2015

In the Outlook publication, Rabobank presents her yearly economic predictions for the coming year. The macroeconomic ‘Outlook 2015’ is published alongside the Thematic booklet ‘Prosperity in the new economic reality’.

Economic Update

Italy: Recession, there we go again

In 14Q2, GDP volume contracted, again. Deflation may support consumption going forward, but lower consumer confidence and high unemployment temper expectations. For fixed investment, headwinds outpace tailwinds, so a firm recovery is unlikely.

Economic Update

Spain: GDP and employment growth on the rise

GDP growth remains robust, mainly owing to a rise in private consumption. We expect employment growth to pick up, especially in the services sector. The fiscal reform announced in the wake of next year’s election puts the deficit target at risk.

Special

Het groeiperspectief van de eurozone (Dutch)

Na jaren van crisis en stagnatie is het herstel van de economie van de eurozone in de meeste landen nog steeds zeer fragiel. In deze Special geven we een beeld van het groeiperspectief voor de eurozone.

Special

De zin en onzin van de ‘output gap’ (Dutch)

In beleidsdiscussies wordt veel gebruik gemaakt van de ‘output gap’. In dit rapport leggen we uit welke onzekerheden er zijn rondom de schatting hiervan en hoe dit kan leiden tot foutieve beleidsadviezen. Bij gebruik ervan is voorzichtigheid geboden.

Economic Update

Belgium: recovery slows in second quarter of 2014

Recent data shows that the Belgian economic recovery remained in place, but weakened in the second quarter of 2014. Going forward, we expect the recovery of the Belgian economy to continue in the second half of 2014, but the pace is likely to be sluggish.

Economic Update

France: recovery remains weak

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.