RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Comment

Japan: A farewell to Abe

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Special

Money printing: First, do no harm

Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Comment

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.