RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Brexit Outlook: Down to the wire

The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Special

Brexit: Outlook 2020

Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Special

The Great Brexit Gamble

Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

Special

Brexit Outlook: Take control!

Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Game over?

Theresa May has said she will resign on 7 June, after her last attempt to save the EU-UK deal failed to garner sufficient support last week. A tougher stance on Brexit and more political turmoil are likely to follow.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Out of control

An extension of article 50 is highly likely now that the British Parliament approved this outcome on 14 March, However, given complications around holding a third meaningful vote on the deal, the final decision on the extension could come as late as 29 March.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Leading on the edge or off the edge?

On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Extreme brinkmanship

The British Parliament rejected the EU-UK Brexit deal on 14 January in a historic defeat for the government. The vote was expected to be a unique opportunity to change the Brexit course, but instead it left us in the same uncertainty.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: To vote or not to vote?

Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: The finals

The United Kingdom and the EU have reached a deal in the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately the road to an orderly Brexit remains a bumpy one and getting the deal approved by the UK Parliament is the main challenge.