Special
Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Special
Hungary and Poland are blocking the implementation of the EUR 750bn European crisis recovery fund. The risk is non-negligible that talks remain in deadlock in the short term. A protracted standoff could have serious economic and market implications.
Special
So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?
Special
The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.
Special
While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.
Special Dutch version
We project the Eurozone economy to contract with 5.2% this year, which is heavier than during the financial crisis. Losses would increase to 12% if lockdowns are extended well into the summer. Debt sustainability issues are quickly re-emerging.
Special Dutch version
Over the past week, Eurozone member states have announced drastic virus containment measures and large fiscal support measure are coming on stream. Moreover, the ECB has announced an extensive stimulus package as well.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect the coronavirus to pull the Eurozone economy into a recession. For the year 2020 growth is projected to fall to around 0.2%. Yet a worse-case scenario is now definitely thinkable as well. The Italian and German economy will shrink this year.
Special
We outline four scenarios in which the coronavirus outbreak becomes increasingly severe and discuss the implications for China and the world economy.
Special
The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.
Special
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
