Column
De verspreiding van het coronavirus heeft in een paar weken tijd de manier waarop we met elkaar omgaan veranderd. Ook op economisch gebied heeft het coronavirus de potentie om taboes en vooringenomen posities te doorbreken.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Our outlook for the global economy has become less rosy and the downside risks have increased. Global trade, for example, is clearly slowing down and we expect a recession in the US by the end of 2020. We also expect the trade war between the US and China to linger on for a sustained period of time.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect global economic growth to weaken further in the coming years. Based on indications on financial markets and weakness in the American housing market, we have penciled in a recession in the US in the course of 2020.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.
Special Dutch version
The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.
Economic Report
We expect that UK’s vote to leave the EU will negatively affect economic growth in the eurozone. We believe that the impact in 2016 is rather small, but we lower our growth forecast for 2017 for both the eurozone and the Netherlands by ¼%-point.
Economic Comment
In het VK wordt de politieke en economische schade van de Brexit-stem zichtbaar. Op korte termijn zien we vooral dat de Brexit-stem de economie van het VK beïnvloedt. Voor de eurozone verwachten we op de korte termijn een beperkt effect op de groei.
